On May 20, 5:39 pm, Danzig <tyat...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Ray Gordon, creator of the "pivot" wrote:
>
> > First tings first: Big Brown is undefeated, and since he's spawned
from the
> > Danzig line, he has this potential. Danzig himself was unbeaten in
three
> > starts before retiring to injury.
>
> > With an unbeaten horse, you never know what it's capable of, so Big
Brown
> > may very well have yet another gear and make all analysisi moot. If
he
> > doesn't, however, it gets interesting, and it's a lot different to
throw out
> > a 2-1 shot than to toss a 1-5 in search of value. Big Brown should be
1-5
> > in the Belmont because at 2-5 he becomes a short-term investment with
a 40
> > percent profit.
>
> > The first warning sign is Dutrow at NYRA with an odds-on favorite who
looks
> > unbeatable. Anyone who plays NYRA knows that Dutrow can and has lost
with
> > horses who look just as impressive. Five wins, two in the five weeks
> > leading up to the Belmont, and this horse may be in subpar form. Few
Dutrow
> > horses hold their super-form for that long, and Big Brown is now
getting
> > into endurance territory, something which has never been his strong
suit.
>
> > The other negatives are Casino Drive and the twelve furlongs. The
Japanese
> > are treating Casino Drive as if he were their champion, and even
better than
> > Big Brown. They ran him ONCE, then sent him here to win the Peter Pan
as if
> > his rivals were allowance horses - wait, they may have been.
Desormeaux
> > rode Casino Drive in the Peter Pan, and said he was ilve, but still
likes
> > Big Brown.
>
> > The twelve furlongs present a big question, but the bigger question is
the
> > pace in the Preakness. They went 1:10.2 for six furlongs, while Big
Brown
> > had a perfect stalking position. Any horse can run off from a pace
like
> > that, and you'd think he would have won by a lot more even being
locked down
> > the final sixteenth. The victory was visually but not statistically
> > impressive. Nevertheless, it was a victory.
>
> > Bottome line: Big Brown is more than likely to win the Belmont, but
taking a
> > shot against him is probuably worth it at the price. in p3 tickets I
would
> > include him and one more horse (Casino Drive probably bu maybe
another),
> > because if the race doesn't turn out as expected, you could get 20-1
or more
> > on the winner.
>
> > It's also very possible that Big Brown and Casino Drive will duel each
other
> > into submission and a plodder like Tale of Ekati or Tomcito will be
there to
> > pick up the pieces. No matter what, it should be a great race to
watch. I
> > just find little value at the 1-5 Big Brown is going to be, since it's
not
> > like Maryland, with a wide-open battle for the minor slots.
>
> Tale of Ekati?
Japs have been trying to get even for Hiro****ma for 60 years! Jock who
rides Casino Drive will have to commit Hari Kari if horse loses!
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