Ray Gordon, creator of the "pivot" wrote:
> First tings first: Big Brown is undefeated, and since he's spawned from
the
> Danzig line, he has this potential. Danzig himself was unbeaten in
three
> starts before retiring to injury.
>
> With an unbeaten horse, you never know what it's capable of, so Big
Brown
> may very well have yet another gear and make all analysisi moot. If he
> doesn't, however, it gets interesting, and it's a lot different to throw
out
> a 2-1 shot than to toss a 1-5 in search of value. Big Brown should be
1-5
> in the Belmont because at 2-5 he becomes a short-term investment with a
40
> percent profit.
>
> The first warning sign is Dutrow at NYRA with an odds-on favorite who
looks
> unbeatable. Anyone who plays NYRA knows that Dutrow can and has lost
with
> horses who look just as impressive. Five wins, two in the five weeks
> leading up to the Belmont, and this horse may be in subpar form. Few
Dutrow
> horses hold their super-form for that long, and Big Brown is now getting
> into endurance territory, something which has never been his strong
suit.
>
> The other negatives are Casino Drive and the twelve furlongs. The
Japanese
> are treating Casino Drive as if he were their champion, and even better
than
> Big Brown. They ran him ONCE, then sent him here to win the Peter Pan
as if
> his rivals were allowance horses - wait, they may have been. Desormeaux
> rode Casino Drive in the Peter Pan, and said he was ilve, but still
likes
> Big Brown.
>
> The twelve furlongs present a big question, but the bigger question is
the
> pace in the Preakness. They went 1:10.2 for six furlongs, while Big
Brown
> had a perfect stalking position. Any horse can run off from a pace like
> that, and you'd think he would have won by a lot more even being locked
down
> the final sixteenth. The victory was visually but not statistically
> impressive. Nevertheless, it was a victory.
>
> Bottome line: Big Brown is more than likely to win the Belmont, but
taking a
> shot against him is probuably worth it at the price. in p3 tickets I
would
> include him and one more horse (Casino Drive probably bu maybe another),
> because if the race doesn't turn out as expected, you could get 20-1 or
more
> on the winner.
>
> It's also very possible that Big Brown and Casino Drive will duel each
other
> into submission and a plodder like Tale of Ekati or Tomcito will be
there to
> pick up the pieces. No matter what, it should be a great race to watch.
I
> just find little value at the 1-5 Big Brown is going to be, since it's
not
> like Maryland, with a wide-open battle for the minor slots.
>
>
Tale of Ekati?
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