First tings first: Big Brown is undefeated, and since he's spawned from the
Danzig line, he has this potential. Danzig himself was unbeaten in three
starts before retiring to injury.
With an unbeaten horse, you never know what it's capable of, so Big Brown
may very well have yet another gear and make all analysisi moot. If he
doesn't, however, it gets interesting, and it's a lot different to throw
out
a 2-1 shot than to toss a 1-5 in search of value. Big Brown should be 1-5
in the Belmont because at 2-5 he becomes a short-term investment with a 40
percent profit.
The first warning sign is Dutrow at NYRA with an odds-on favorite who
looks
unbeatable. Anyone who plays NYRA knows that Dutrow can and has lost with
horses who look just as impressive. Five wins, two in the five weeks
leading up to the Belmont, and this horse may be in subpar form. Few
Dutrow
horses hold their super-form for that long, and Big Brown is now getting
into endurance territory, something which has never been his strong suit.
The other negatives are Casino Drive and the twelve furlongs. The
Japanese
are treating Casino Drive as if he were their champion, and even better
than
Big Brown. They ran him ONCE, then sent him here to win the Peter Pan as
if
his rivals were allowance horses - wait, they may have been. Desormeaux
rode Casino Drive in the Peter Pan, and said he was ilve, but still likes
Big Brown.
The twelve furlongs present a big question, but the bigger question is the
pace in the Preakness. They went 1:10.2 for six furlongs, while Big Brown
had a perfect stalking position. Any horse can run off from a pace like
that, and you'd think he would have won by a lot more even being locked
down
the final sixteenth. The victory was visually but not statistically
impressive. Nevertheless, it was a victory.
Bottome line: Big Brown is more than likely to win the Belmont, but taking
a
shot against him is probuably worth it at the price. in p3 tickets I
would
include him and one more horse (Casino Drive probably bu maybe another),
because if the race doesn't turn out as expected, you could get 20-1 or
more
on the winner.
It's also very possible that Big Brown and Casino Drive will duel each
other
into submission and a plodder like Tale of Ekati or Tomcito will be there
to
pick up the pieces. No matter what, it should be a great race to watch.
I
just find little value at the 1-5 Big Brown is going to be, since it's not
like Maryland, with a wide-open battle for the minor slots.
--
Ray Gordon, The ORIGINAL Lifestyle Seduction Guru
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