Prop bets are meant to give someone an edge. The edge isn't usually
very large. Casino's get the money with mear percentage points.
Yesterday, I made a bet where I thought I was about a 4/5 favorite on
making the money. I asked for 7-5 and received it. Slight overlay on
my thinking. Dog on others thinking.
I cashed, but the bet was a close one whatever way you bet.
I loved the bet today, as I knew the odds were greater in my favor. I
knew I could only lose a max of about 250 in the first 8 minutes. Two
minutes after that, the blinds go up to 25-50 from the 10-20 they
were. This leaves me with 5 buyins vs 7 buyins.
I have played at least 3000 of these on Stars. It never changes. It's
about a 100-1 shot any person loses playing less than 100 hands. When
you get to the 150-300 level, it's a coin flip.
My aim was to finish these guys off in the 50-100----75-150 area. It
didn't work that way. Fell and I were about even at the 150-300 level,
when I was dealt a 3567 start with a three straight flush start
against a brick hand. If you do the math, it's about 3-1 I make at
least low. Instead, I caught a 9, which gave me a double belly buster.
Then JQ. Couldn't beat a K door card. Basically the end of me.
I wish I had a poker bookie for stars, I'd give him a 12% advantage
when I wanted to bet on a card or a series of cars, such as 2 bricks
or three bricks.
Play TexUgly tonight and see how you do. He should be on there in the
100 and 200.
Russ Georgiev
www.pokermafia.com
www.pokerunchecked.com
www.russgeorgiev.com
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