In a separate thread/posting on here, a "BOMB IRAN POOL" has been
proposed. I would like to propose an additional betting pool to go
along with the first proposition. For lack of a better term, we might
call this one the: "How High Will Oil Go?" pool as determined by the
daily closing price of a barrel of oil on the NYMEX futures market.
Assuming that an attack does take place sometime before the November
election, the Iranians have promised that such an action will open
"the gates of hell" - implying possible disruption of oil supplies
from the Middle East, not to mention all the other "headaches" that
might follow ... Of course, such talk may be hot air and bluster from
a bunch of turban-wearing mullahs, but does anybody really believe
that an armed nation which is attacked is just going to sit back and
take it? Did we sit back and do nothing after those planes slammed
into the World Trade Center buildings?
A few weeks ago oil went up over $9.00 a barrel (a record single-day
price spike) on the mere rumor of an official of the Israeli
government. This official [allegedly] declared that an attack on Iran
was "unavoidable." If this turns into an actual shooting war, it's
not too hard to imagine a lot of oil infrastructure going up in smoke
- not just in Iran but in Iraq as well. (Suicide bombers can blow up
an oil pipeline just as easily as they can blow up a crowded
marketplace.) Once oil production facilities in either of those
countries are burning, the oil price in the futures market starts
skyrocketing.
I'm not an expert on the oil market or military matters, but my
"guess" is that if Iran is attacked, the price of a barrel of crude
will immediately spike to $250.00 per barrel - and keep going from
there depending on just how chaotic the situation becomes. In a
"worst case" scenario, the price might spike up to $500.00 per
barrel. Of course, any oil price substantially above $200.00 per
barrel is going to kill us economically. I suppose we can all go back
to riding bicycles and horses.
Alan C. Lawhon
Huntsville, Alabama
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