We've been discussing "Fold Equity" lately, and it's brought some insight
to
people and also developed some confusion as to what the fold equity is if
you DON'T want your opponent to fold.
I've been thinking about this for a while. I propose that all bets have
what
I call "Total Bet Equity".
To simplify the example, assume it's heads up.
TBE = FE +CE +FAE
FE = fold equity. This is the likelihood your opponent will fold for a
given
bet, times the size of the pot prior to you making it. Fancy math term
FE(X)
= P(f) * PS
Fold equity can never be less than zero.
CE = call equity. This is the likelihood of you winning the pot, if your
bet
is called and no further action happens in the hand, times the size of the
pot after the bet is called.
Fancy math term CE(X) = P(w) *(Ps+2X)
Call equity can never be less than zero.
FAE = Future Action Equity.
THIS is the great unknown.
FAE = what you do if your opponent raises immediately or bets into you at
some future point.
IF you fold , then the FAE is a negative number... the value of your FE +
CE.
If you reraise, with the best hand or some likelihood of making HIM fold,
then it's positive.
IF you flat call, then it's still a function of call equity... but you're
now less likely to get there without further action.
You can make some reasonable estimate of FE at any point.
You should be able to guess something at least sorta close for CE.
FAE is going to be the great unknown most of the time. On those instances
where it ISN'T. like you have the nuts, or you have complete air, it's
going
to come down to FE and CE anyway.
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